HOME

 

 

Steve Outing ¬° Poynter Institute for Media Studies ¸ê²`½s¿è¡A
¦P®É¬°Editor & Publisher Interactive µ¥¦hºØ±M·~¥Zª«¼¶¼g±MÄæ
   
steve outing pic
  ¹w¦ô 2003 ¦~ºô¤W·s»D·~
2003 Predictions For Online News Biz
  By Steve Outing December 30, 2002
  ½Ð§â§Aªº·Qªk¼g«Hµ¹§Ú¡G steve@Poynter.org
eandpletter ¥»±MÄæÀò Mr. Steve Outing Editor&Publisher Dot-Com ±ÂÅv½ĶÂà¸ü
¾Ö¦³ª©Åv ¨C¤ë¥Z¥X¤@¦¸

  §ÚÄ@·N¦b 2002 ¦~³Ì«á¤@¦¸±MÄæ¡A¤Ï¬M¤@¤Uºô¤W·s»Dªº²{ª¬¡A¨Ã¹ï«e´º§@¤@ÂI±´µø¡C§Ú­Ì¨«¹L­þ¨Ç¸ô¤l¡H¤µ«á«ç»ò¨«¡H

  ¹ï¤µ«áªº¸ô¤l§Ú¨S¦³¥R¥÷ªºµª®×¡A¶È´£¥X¤@¨Ç·³¥½ªº·Qªk¡B¹w´ú¡B»P«Ø¨¥¡]¹ï¥¼¨Óªº³¡¥÷¤£«Oµý¡^¡C

ºô¤W¼s§iªº©R¹B

  ¸gÀÙ«ùÄò§C°g¡A¦ýºô¤W·s»D¥Xª©·~¦b 2002 ¦~¨Ã¥¼ÀHµÛ¼s§i¤U¨H¡A¤Ï¦Ó¦³³\¦h«K³qªº¿ìªk¨Ó¼W¥[¦¬¤J¡A¯S§O¬O¹ï³¡¥÷·s»D¤º®e¦¬¶O¡A¤£¦A§K¶OÃؾ\¡C¦Ü©ó¼s§i¡A³\¦h¤ÀªR®a»{¬°¬O¤G¦¸¤j¾Ô¥H¨Ó³Ì¬\ºÜªº±¡ªp¡A¼vÅT©Ò¦³ªº´CÅé¡A¦ýºô¤W¼s§i¨ü³Ð³Ì²`¡A¦]¬°¥»¨Ó¤À°t¦bºô¤Wªº¼s§i¹wºâ´N¤£¦h¡C

  ¦ý 2003 ¦~±¡ªp¥i¯à¦nÂà¡C¤é«e¦b¯Ã¬ù¤@­ÓªÑ²¼¤ÀªR®vªº¶°·|¤W¡A³ø¯Èªº¥DºÞ­Ì´ú©ú¦~¼s§iÀ禬·|¼W¥[¡A¦Ó¥B«Ü¼ÖÆ[ªºªí¥Ü¡A¨ä¤¤«Ü¤jªº¤@³¡¥÷·|¨Ó¦Ûºô¸ô¡C¯Ã¬ù®É³ø§ó¹w¦ô¨äºô¯¸¸û 2001 ¦~¦h¥X 1300 ¦Ü 1500 ¸U¬ü¤¸ªº§Q¼í¡C

  ·|¤¤³Ì¥O§Ú¹ª»Rªº¬O¯Ã¬ù®É³ø¼Æ¦ìÁ`µôMartin Nisenholtz ªº½Í¸Ü¡A»¡¥L­ÌÄ~Äò§K¶O´£¨Ñ·s»D¡A¥H¼s§iÀ禬¤ä´©¨ä¹B§@¡A¡u§Ú­Ì¤£Ä@¥´¶}¤@®°ÅýŪªÌÅܤpªº«eªù¡C¡v¨ä¾lªº¥D­n´CÅé¦pµØ²±¹y¶l³ø¡A¤]³£«ÅºÙÄ~Äòºû«ù§K¶O¾\Ū¼Ò¦¡¡C

  ¯Ã¬ù®É³ø»PµØ²±¹y¶l³ø¬O·~¬É»â³S¡A¹ïºô¤W·s»Dªº¨«¶Õ¦³¨¬°÷ªº¼vÅT¤O¡A¦pªG»·Â÷¥H¼s§i¤ä´©§K¶O¾\Ū·s»Dªº·s»D¼Ò¦¡¡A¹ï·s»D·~¥i¯à´¦°_·Ê¤Ñ¥¨®ö¡A«Ü°ª¿³§Ú­Ì¨S¦³»·Â÷²{ª¬¡C

  ¹ï¤j¦h¼Æ¥Xª©·~ªÌ¦Ó¨¥¡AÂêºòªº¤º®e·|Åý§AÅܦ¨¿é®a¡]¤Ö¼Æ¦pµØº¸µó¤é³øºô¯¸¡A®ø¶OªÌ³ø§iºô¯¸¨Ò¥~¡^¡A³o¤]¬O§Ú¬°¤°»ò»{¬°®É¥NÂø»x§â¤º®e©ñ¤J¬ü°ê½u¤WAOL ¬O¿ù»~¤§Á|¡A§Ú¹w´ÁTime-AOL ·|¦b¤@¨â¦~¤º»{²M³o¤@¿ù»~¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡G§OÅýºô¤W¼s§iªºªí²{À~µÛ§A¡C·s»Dºô¯¸¦b¬Y¨Ç¯S©wªº¤º®e¥¼¹Á¤£¥i¥H¦¬¶O¡A¦ýÁo©úªººô¯¸¤£·|§â¨C¼Ë¤º®e³£¦¬¶O¡C¼ÖÆ[µ¥«Ýºô¤W¼s§i´ç¹L§xÃø®É´Á¡A¤@¤Á·|¦nÂà¡C

  2003 ¦~¹w´ú¡Gºô¤W¼s§i½wºCí©w«ì´_¡Aºô¤W¥Xª©³vº¥¼ÖÆ[¡C

¼s§i®æ¦¡

 ¤µ¦~§Ú¬Ý¨ì¨âºØºô¤W¼s§iÃþ«¬¡A¦Ó¥B¦ü¥G͹¬Þ¡C³Ì©úÅ㪺¬O¤j«¬¡B°Ê¹º¡B¬Æ¦Ü¤¬°Ê¡A¦Ó¥B·Ð¤Hªººô¤W¼s§i¡A±q¸õ¥X¨Óªº¼s§i¡B¨ì¶¶µÛ¤å½Z¤º®eª¦°Êªº¼s§i¡A©ÎªÌ¶È¦³¤å¦rªº¤j¦r¼s§i¡A¤@¼Ë¤@¼Ë¦b§A­±«e¥X²{¡A¦Ó¥B¤@¦~¤ñ¤@¦~Ãa¡]±qŪªÌ¨¤«×¨Ó¬Ý¡^¡C

  ²Ä¤G­ÓÁͶլO¦b·j´M¤ÞÀº¤¤¥[¤J¤å¦r¼s§i¡A³o¬O­Ó¦¨¥\ªº§@ªk¡A¼s§i¥DÁʶR·j´M¤ÞÀºªº¯S©w¦r·J¡AŪªÌ¿é¤J¦r·J¬d¸ß¡A·j´M¤ÞÀº´N§â¬ÛÃöªº¥I¶Oºô¯¸¦^Âе¹ÅªªÌ¡AGoogle°µªº«D±`¦n¡AOverture ¤]´À Yahoo »P InfoSpace °â¾P¤å¦r¼s§i¡C¨Ò¦p§A¦b Google ·j´M¡u¦bªü©Ô´µ¥[ÅSÀç¡v¡A¦b¦^ÂЪºµ²ªGùØ´N·|¥]¬A Get Up and Go Tour ºô¯¸ªº³sµ²¡A³o­Óºô´£¨Ñªü©Ô´µ¥[®È¹CªA°È¡A·íµM¤]¥I¶Oµ¹ Google¡C®Ú¾Ú¯Ã¬ù¤¬°Ê¼s§i§½ªº²Î­p¡A¤å¦r·j´M¼s§i¬O¤µ¦~ºô¤W¼s§i°ß¤@¦¨ªøªºÃþ§O¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡G§O¤p¬Ý¤å¦r·j´M¼s§iªº«Â¤O¡CGoogle »P Overture ªº¾P°â¤H­û°_ªì¤]¦³§xÃø±À°Ê³o­Ó·§©À¡A¦ý¦¨¥\ªº®×¨Ò¤£Â_¥X²{¤§«á¡A³o­Ó·§©À´N¦¨¤F¤@­«­nªºÀç¹B¡C·s»D¥Xª©¤]À³¸Ó«Ø¥ß³o¼Ëªº¼s§i¡A§â¥Ø¼ÐÂê¦b¯S©wŪªÌ¸s¡C³o¤]³\¤£¯à·Ó§Û·j´M¤ÞÀºªº¤å¦r³sµ²¼s§i¡A¦ý¥i§@¦hºØÅܤƤ覡¡C

  2003 ¦~¹w´ú¡Gºô¤W¼s§i·|¯q¥[¥O¤H¹½·Ð¡A¦ý¼Æ¶q·|´î¤Ö¡A¬°¤°»ò¡H

1. ®ø¶OªÌ°Q¹½³o¨Ç¼s§i¡C
2. ¸õ¥X¨Óªººô­¶¤éº¥´¶¤Î¡AISP ¤]¸g±`¬°¥Î¤áªºÅv¯q¥´¥XÃþ¦ü«¬ºAªº¸ê°T¡C

¦P®É¡A§Ú­Ì·|¬Ý¨ìÂ×´I´CÅ骺ºë½o¼s§i¤éº¥¼W¦h¡A°Êµe¡B¼vµø¡BÁn­µ¡B§óªá«Nªº¥«³õ«P¾P¬¡°Ê¡C·í¼e±aºô¸ôªºº¥´¶¤Î¨ì®a®x¡AÂ×´I´CÅé¼s§i¤éº¥­«­n¡A¥Xª©·~¤]·|¦]¬°¾P°âÂ×´I´CÅéªÅ¶¡¦Ó¼W¥[Àç¼Æ¡C

§K¶O»P¥I¶O

  «e­±»¡¹L§Ú¤£¹w´Á·s»Dºô¯¸Âà¦V§¹¥þ¥I¶O¡A¦ý¤£ªí¥Ü³¡¥÷¥I¶O¤£¯à¦¨¬°À禬ªº­«­n¤@Àô¡C

  ¯Ã¬ùºô¤W¥Xª©¤H¨ó·|µo§G¡A¤µ¦~«e¤E­Ó¤ë¡A®ø¶OªÌ¦bºô¤W¤º®eªºªá¶O°ª¹F¤E»õ¤C¤d¤­¦Ê¸U¬ü¤¸¡A¦ý¾Ú·s´CÅéÅU°Ý Vin Crosbie¡A¨ä¤¤¶È¦³ 15¢H¨Ó¦Û·s»D¤º®e¡C³o­Ó¼Æ¦rÅãµM¤´¤£¨¬¥H§â³o¶µÀ禬µø¬°¥D­n¨Ó·½¡A¦Ó®Ú¾Ú¨ä¥L¬ã¨s¸ê®Æ¦p Borrell Associate ªº¤ÀªR¡A·s»Dºô¯¸ªº­q¾\µ¦²¤¦b°]°È¤W§¹¥þ¥¢±Ñ¡]°£¤F¦pµØº¸µó¤é³øµ¥¤Ö¼Æºô¯¸¡^¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡G³o»P§Ú«e´X¦~«Ø¨¥¨S¤°»ò¤£¦P¡A§â°ª»ù­È¡B°ªÀÉ¡BŪªÌÄ@·N¥I¶Oªº¤º®e»PªA°È¡A­q¤@­Ó»ù½X¡A¦P®É¤£­n§â§K¶O³¡¥÷ªº¤ô¥­­°§C¡A¦]¬°¼s§i¥D­n¦b§Aªººô¯¸ªá¿ú¡A¤´µM¦b·NŪªÌªº¬y¶q¡A§C¤ô¥­ªººô¯¸¤£·|¦³«Ü¦h³X«È¡C

  2003 ¦~¹w´ú¡G¤º®e¦¬¶Oªº¼ö¼é¡A·|ÀH¸gÀÙªº¦nÂà»P¼s§iªº¦¨ªø¡A½wºC¶i¦æ¡C·íÀ£¤O³vº¥´î»´¡A¥Xª©·~·|§ïÅܧ¹¥þ§K¶Oªº¤£´¼¤§Á|¡C

¨D¤~¨D¾

  ³ø·~¤µ¦~ªü«´¨½´µªº¸}¸ò¡]Achilles¡B¥j§Æþ­^¶¯¡B°£¸}¸ò¤§¥~¤Mºj¤£¤J¡^¡A¬O¨D¤~¨D¾¼s§i¡C¤ÀÃþ¼s§i­ì¨Ó´N¤£½ñ¹ê¡A´N·~Ãþ¨ü³Ð³Ì¤j¡C¤µ¦~¬î©u Borrell ³ø§i«ü¥X¡A«e18­Ó¤ë³ø¯Èªº´N·~¼s§i¤U­°¤F 40%¡A­ì¦]¬O·í¦aªº´N·~ºô¯¸¦p Monster.com ªºÄvª§©Ò­P¡A¦Ó¥B«ì´_¨ì¥H«e·~ÁZªº¾÷·|¤£¤j¡C

  ¸gÀÙªº¤£®¶©TµM¬O¦]¯À¤§¤@¡A¦ý¥D­n¬O¤H¤O¸ê·½¤u§@ªÌ¡]»P¨D¾ªº¤H¡^ÁͦV©ó§ó¦³®Äªº¤u§@¤è¦¡¡A§Q¥Îºô¸ô´À¥N³ø¯È¡C§Q¥Îºô¤W´N·~ªA°È»P¤Ç°t¤u¨ã¡A§ó¯à§ä¨ì¦X®æªº¤H¿ï¡A¤H¤O¸ê·½³æ¦ì¥Îºô¤WªA°È¤£¦ý¦³®Ä¦Ó¥B«K©y¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡Gºô¤W¶±¸uªºÁͶաA¬Oµ¹¤H¤O¸ê·½¤u§@ªÌ§ó¦nªº¤u¨ã¡A±q¤d¸U¤H¿ïªº¸ê®Æ®w¤¤§ä¨ì¦X¾Aªº¤H¡C¶È¶È·j´M¸ê®wÁÙ¤£°÷¡A§ó§Æ±æ§â¿ï¥X¨Óªº¤HÂkÃþ¡A¬Æ¦Ü¹w¥ý§@´úÅç¬Ý¬Ý¬O§_¦X®æ¡C³ø·~À³¸Ó°l»°³o¤@ÁͶաA§âµJÂI±q¦L¨ê¤H¨Æ¼s§i²¾Âà¨ìºô¸ô¡]¦L¨ê´N·~¼s§i¤w¸g¨S¾÷·|¤F¡^¡A¨ÓªA°È·í¦aªº¤H¤O¥«³õ¡C

  2003¦~¹w´ú¡G¤j¦h¼Æ³ø¤£·|±Ä¨ú§Ö³tªº°Ê§@¡AÄ~Äò¬ÝµÛ¤H¨Æ¼s§iÂà¦V Monster.com µ¥¤H¤O¸ê·½ºô¯¸¡C¡]²Ä¤G­Ó«Ø¨¥¡G¨Óµý©ú§Ú¿ù¤F¡I¡^

§ó¦hªº Flash »P§ó°{Ä£ªººô¯¸

  ¤µ¦~ªº¦h´CÅé©Î¡uÂ×´I¡v¤º®e¤W¡A¦³¬Û·íªº¶i®i¡A¤]¬Ý¨ì¦³§ó¦hªº¥ý¶i¦h´CÅé§Þ³Nªº»s§@¡C¦b·s»Dºô¯¸¤W¡A¤]¦³§ó¦h³]­p¤H»PÃÀ³N®a¨Ï¥Î Flash¡A³o­Ó¦¨ªGÂk¥\©ó³o¨Ç¤Hªº§V¤O¾Ç²ß¡A¥H¤Î Flash ¥»¨­§Þ³Nªº¶i®i¡C§Ú¬O¯¸¦b SND.ies ¦h´CÅé·s»D¤º®e¼úµû¼fªº¥ß³õ¡A»¡ªº³o¨Ç¸Ü¡A¦b¼f¬dªº®É­Ô¯àªY½à¨ì³\¦h¬ü§®ªº³]­p¡C

  ¦ý¦h´CÅ餴¦bµÞªÞ®É´Á¡A³\¦h SND.ies °e¼fªº§@«~Åã±oÁ¡®z¡A¬Æ¦Ü·~¾l¤Æ¡C³o¦b¦h´CÅé©|¥¼¦¨¼ôªºªì´Á¡A½T¬O¦p¦¹¡A¥¿¦p¦P®à¤W¥Xª©ªº¦­´Á¡A³\¦h¥Î PageMaker »PÂÂÄ«ªG¹q¸£»s§@ªº¥Xª©«~¤£±M·~¤Æ¤@¼Ë¡C

  ¦b¥t¤@­±¡A¦³¤@¨Ç«D±`¦nªº¤¬°Ê³]­p¡A­È±oºÙ¹D¡A¦³ MSNBC¡BEIPais.es¡BNYTimes.com¡B¥H¤ÎSun-Sentinel.com¡C¤µ¦~¦~ªì¡A§Ú´¿¥ô Online Journalism ¼úªºµû¼f¡AÄvÁÉªÌ Mark Fiore űoºô¤Wµû½×¼ú¡A¥Lªº§@«~¬O°Êµe¦h´CÅ骺¥d³q¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡G2003 ¦~¬O»{¯u¦Ò¼{¦h´CÅé©ÎÂ×´I¤º®eªº®É­Ô¡A¼e±aºô¸ô¦b¥ø·~¤w¸g´¶¤Î¡A¦b®a®x¤]¦¨ªø¡C

  2003 ¦~¹w´ú¡G³]­pªÌ¶}©l¾Ç²ß¦h´CÅé»s§@¡A§Ú­Ì·|¬Ý¨ì·U¨Ó·U¦h³oÃþªº§@«~¡C

¬°¤°»ò­n WiFi ¡H

  ³Ì«á¡A§Ú¤£¯à´£¨ì WiFi µL½uºô¸ô©Ò±a¨Óªº½ÄÀ»¡C

  µL½uºô¸ôªº¨Ï¥Î§Ö³t¦¨ªø¡A¦h¼Æ¥Î¦bµ§°O«¬¹q¸£¡B¤Î¤Ö¼Æ¥Î¦b³sºôªº PDA ¤W¡A³o¹ï·s»D¥Xª©¦³¤°»ò¼vÅT¡H­º¥ý¬O¤Wºô¤H¼Æ¥i¦]¦¹¼W¦h¡B¤Wºô®É¶¡¥[ªø¡A¹ï·s»D·~¬O¦n²{¶H¡C·s»D·~ªÌ¤£¶È§âµL½uºô¸ôµø¬°³æ¦V¶Ç»¼¡A¦Ó¥B­nµø¬°Âù¦V¤¬°Ê¡A§@¬°·¾³qªº¤u¨ã¡C

  «Ø¨¥¡G§¤¤U¨Ó¦n¦n¨É¨üµL½uºô¸ôªº¥\¯à¡A¦pªG§A¬O·s»D·~ªÌ¡A³o¹ï§A¦³¦n³B¡A·Q·Q¡G¦p¦ó¨ÓªA°È§A¨º¨ÇÂ÷¶}¿ì¤½«Ç¡B¦ý¤´»Pºô¸ô¬Û³sªºÅªªÌ¡C

  2003 ¦~¹w´ú¡GWiFi ¦b 2002 ¦~¬O¼öªù¡A2003 ¦~·|§ó¼ö¡A³o¹ï·s»Dµo¦æ¬O¦n·s»D¡A¹ê»Ú¤W¹ï¨C­Ó¦bºô¤WÀç·~ªº¤H³£¬O¦n·s»D¡Cºô¸ô´CÅé¡A·|¦]¬°¨Ï¥Î¤H¤£¦b¿ì¤½«Ç¤]¯àIJ¤Î¨ì¥L­Ì¡A¦Ó¤j´T«×¦¨ªø¡C

¤W¤@½g ¢x   ¤U¤@½g ¢x ¯Á ¤Þ